KeyMO · Equilibria · Tipsy Sampler

The Tipsy Sampler, Explained

The whole program at a glance — every number opens up to show how it's built, and the team can talk it through in place.

? Tap any underlined number, chart, or row to see how it's calculated, what it means, and where it comes from.

The verdict

The program works. Judge it on the matured cohorts — not the blended average.

4.79×

Revenue ROAS

3.03×

Contribution ROAS

+$14.72

Net per customer

Mar · Apr · Jun cohorts — 1,292 customers on $9,349 spend, every one fully past its first bill.

Program to date

Samplers acquired

3,916

on $33,489 ad spend

Net revenue

$70,689

$35,591 contribution

Activate to paid sub

48.4%

of 1,638 past day 28

Blended CAC

$8.55

$9.61 at August rate

Lifetime value / customer

$23.07

= break-even CAC

Churn shape

One cliff

then 53–55% renew

Revenue climbs because cohorts stack

Base case — 2,500 new samplers a month at $10. Each month is carried by last month's cohort hitting its first bill; as cohorts pile up, the total keeps rising. Tap a bar to break it down.

$15.0k

$39.9k first bills

SEPTEMBER

$61.7k

+$11.1k net

$15.0k

$39.5k first bills

$16.8k tail

OCTOBER

$71.3k

+$18.5k net

$15.0k

$39.5k first bills

$22.8k tail

NOVEMBER

$77.2k

+$23.1k net

First bills — the engine (~$39.5k)

Maturing tail — older cohorts still paying

Just acquired (mostly shipping)

Contribution by month — and who pays it

Each month's contribution, then the cohort makeup underneath. December is the peak — November's cohort bills after the Nov 30 stop. Tap a row to see how that month is built.

Cohort	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Month total	$14.1k	$36.1k	$43.5k	$48.1k	$51.2k
Older (Feb–Jun)	16%	4%	3%	2%	1%
July	84%	10%	5%	3%	2%
August	—	85%	22%	12%	7%
September	—	—	70%	20%	11%
October	—	—	—	63%	19%
November	—	—	—	—	60%

The Nov 30 decision: how hard to push at $10–$15 CPA

Acquisition stops Nov 30. Every customer bought at ≤$15 returns $23.07 over their life. Volume grows by the √-spend law. Tap a path to see the trade-off.

CPA path (Sep–Nov)	New customers	Ad spend	Lifetime contribution	Profit / customer	Total profit
Hold $102,550 / mo	7,647	$76,470	$176,416	+$13.07	+$99.9k
Step $10→$12→$15ramp confidence	9,432	$119,558	$217,596	+$10.39	+$98.0k
Push $15max volume	11,472	$172,080	$264,659	+$8.07	+$92.6k

What you're actually building

$235k → $323k

of lifetime contribution from the four scaled cohorts (Aug–Nov) — most of it lands after Nov 30.

~10,200–14,000 customers in four months — versus ~200/month a year ago.
Today's blended 2.11× hides all of this: most spend hasn't been billed once.
One free lift: a day-20–28 save flow adds ~$1.80/customer.

Concepts, in plain English

The ideas behind the numbers — no jargon, no deep dives.