?Tap any underlined number to see how it's calculated, what it means, and where it comes from.
The verdict
The program works. Judge it on the matured cohorts — not the blended average.
4.10×
Revenue ROAS
2.56×
Contribution ROAS
+$12.44
Net per customer
Mar · Apr · Jun · Jul cohorts — 2,259 customers on $18,013 spend, every one fully past its first auto-bill.
Program to date
Feb 1 – Sep 23 · booked, net of tax
Samplers acquired
5,355
on $50,853 ad spend
Net revenue
$129,071
$73,754 contribution
Activate to paid sub
44.3%
of 4,376 matured past day 28
Blended CAC
$9.50
$9.89 at August run-rate
Lifetime value / customer
$24.01
= break-even CAC
Churn shape
One cliff
first bill only; then 53–55% renew
How much room is left to spend2.4× headroom before break-even
$9.89pay now
$15aggressive ceiling
$24.01break-even
Ignore the blended 2.54×. It reads low because 64% of customers and 70% of the spend were bought in the last seven weeks — before a single auto-bill could land. Nothing is wrong with the funnel; those cohorts just haven't been billed yet.
Projected contribution · base case
October
$43,489
+$18,489 net
November
$48,090
+$23,090 net
The move
1Build a day-20–28 save flow before the first charge — all the churn is at that one point.
2Step CAC to $12 in September, then $15 in October only if day-28 activation holds above 40%.