Equilibria · Tipsy Sampler · for the CEO
Where the program lands by its Nov 30 stop — projected from what customers have already proven they do, not from assumptions.
Everything below is one number multiplied by cohort size: what a single sampler is already proven to be worth. Rebuilt from Equilibria's live Shopify + Meta on the matured March / April / June cohorts — real bills, net of tax, no modelling.
Base case — 2,500 new samplers a month at $10 CPA. Each month is carried by the cohort acquired the month before, hitting its first bill. As more cohorts pile up, the maturing tail thickens and the total keeps rising.
The engine: every month ≈ the prior cohort × its first bill. A 2,500 cohort × ~$16 = ~$39.5k, arriving like clockwork 28 days later. A year ago a cohort was ~200 customers; today it is 2,500 — that is why the ramp is real.
Each month's contribution, with the cohort makeup underneath. Same engine: the cohort acquired last month is 60–85% of this month's number as its first bills land; older cohorts are a thinning tail. The highlighted diagonal is that first bill moving forward one month at a time. December is the peak — November's cohort bills after the Nov 30 stop.
| Cohort | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month total | $14.1k | $36.1k | $43.5k | $48.1k | $51.2k |
| Older (Feb–Jun) | 16%$2.3k | 4%$1.6k | 3%$1.2k | 2%$0.8k | 1%$0.6k |
| July | 84%$11.8k | 10%$3.7k | 5%$2.2k | 3%$1.5k | 2%$1.1k |
| August | — | 85%$30.9k | 22%$9.6k | 12%$5.8k | 7%$3.8k |
| September | — | — | 70%$30.5k | 20%$9.5k | 11%$5.8k |
| October | — | — | — | 63%$30.5k | 19%$9.5k |
| November | — | — | — | — | 60%$30.5k |
Read a column top-down: the total, then who paid it. Base case — 2,500/mo at $10 CPA; no December cohort (acquisition stops Nov 30).
The program stops acquiring at Nov 30. Every customer bought at ≤$15 returns $23.07 over their life — so the last three months are the final chance to lock subscribers in. All three paths are profitable; they differ in how much you buy before the door closes.
| CPA path (Sep–Nov) | New customers | Ad spend | Lifetime contribution | Profit / customer | Total profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold $102,550 / mo | 7,647 | $76,470 | $176,416 | +$13.07 | +$99.9k |
| Step $10 → $12 → $15ramp confidence | 9,432 | $119,558 | $217,596 | +$10.39 | +$98.0k |
| Push $15max volumequality-check first | 11,472 | $172,080 | $264,659 | +$8.07 | +$92.6k |
Push to $15 to maximize scale; step into it to protect profit. Pushing to $15 buys the most customers (11,472) and locks in the most contribution ($376k) before the stop — but because each customer is worth $23, the extra spend is thinner, so total profit dips slightly (~$93k vs ~$100k at $10). Every path is strongly profitable. The case for $15 is owning the most subscribers before the door closes, not more profit per dollar — so re-check day-28 activation before committing November.
of lifetime contribution from the four scaled cohorts (Aug–Nov) — depending on how hard you push. Most of it lands after the Nov 30 stop.